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The Frontier Labs War: Opus 4.6, GPT 5.3 Codex, and the SuperBowl Ads Debacle

Questions to inspire discussion AI Model Performance & Capabilities.

đŸ€– Q: How does Anthropic’s Opus 4.6 compare to GPT-5.2 in performance?

A: Opus 4.6 outperforms GPT-5.2 by 144 ELO points while handling 1M tokens, and is now in production with recursive self-improvement capabilities that allow it to rewrite its entire tech stack.

🔧 Q: What real-world task demonstrates Opus 4.6’s agent swarm capabilities?

A: An agent swarm created a C compiler in Rust for multiple architectures in weeks for **$20K, a task that would take humans decades, demonstrating AI’s ability to collapse timelines and costs.

🐛 Q: How effective is Opus 4.6 at finding security vulnerabilities?

Why the Future of Intelligence Is Already Here | Alex Wissner-Gross | TEDxBoston

The future of intelligence is rapidly evolving with AI advancements, poised to transform numerous aspects of life, work, and existence, with exponential growth and sweeping changes expected in the near future.

## Questions to inspire discussion.

Strategic Investment & Career Focus.

🎯 Q: Which companies should I prioritize for investment or career opportunities in the AI era?

A: Focus on companies with the strongest AI models and those advancing energy abundance, as these will have the largest marginal impact on enabling the innermost loop of robots building fabs, chips, and AI data centers to accelerate exponentially.

Understanding Market Dynamics.

OpenAI May Be On The Brink of Collapse

OpenAI is facing a potentially crippling lawsuit from Elon Musk, financial strain, and sustainability concerns, which could lead to its collapse and undermine its mission and trust in its AI technology ## ## Questions to inspire discussion.

Legal and Corporate Structure.

🔮 Q: What equity stake could Musk claim from OpenAI? A: Musk invested $30M representing 60% of OpenAI’s original funding and the lawsuit could force OpenAI to grant him equity as compensation for the nonprofit-to-for-profit transition that allegedly cut him out.

⚖ Q: What are the trial odds and timeline for Musk’s lawsuit? A: The trial is set for April after a judge rejected OpenAI and Microsoft’s dismissal bid, with Kalshi predicting Musk has a 65% chance of winning the case.

Funding and Financial Stability.

💰 Q: How could the lawsuit impact OpenAI’s ability to raise capital? A: The lawsuit threatens to cut off OpenAI’s lifeline to cash and venture capital funding, potentially leading to insolvency and preventing them from pursuing an IPO due to uncertainty around financial stability and corporate governance.

Is This The End of OpenAI?

Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI aims to expose the company’s alleged abandonment of its non-profit mission and potential shift to a for-profit model, sparking a heated dispute over the company’s future and integrity ##

## Questions to inspire discussion.

Understanding the lawsuit timeline and stakes.

🔍 Q: When is Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI going to trial and what is he claiming?

A: The lawsuit is set to go to trial in April 2026, with Musk arguing he’s owed billions from the value of intellectual property developed from his contributions as the primary funder who wanted OpenAI to remain nonprofit and open source.

📄 Q: What evidence exists in Greg Brockman’s personal files from 2017?

The Next Great Transformation: How AI Will Reshape Industries—and Itself

#artificialintelligence #ai #technology #futuretech


This change will revolutionize leadership, governance, and workforce development. Successful firms will invest in technology and human capital by reskilling personnel, redefining roles, and fostering a culture of human-machine collaboration.

The Imperative of Strategy Artificial intelligence is not preordained; it is a tool shaped by human choices. How we execute, regulate, and protect AI will determine its impact on industries, economies, and society. I emphasized in Inside Cyber that technology convergence—particularly the amalgamation of AI with 5G, IoT, distributed architectures, and ultimately quantum computing—will augment both potential and hazards.

The issue at hand is not if AI will transform industries—it has already done so. The essential question is whether we can guide this change to enhance security, resilience, and human well-being. Individuals who interact with AI strategically, ethically, and with a long-term perspective will gain a competitive advantage and foster the advancement of a more innovative and secure future.

Epistemological Fault Lines Between Human and Artificial Intelligence

Walter (Dated: December 22, 2025)

See
 https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/c5gh8_v1

Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are widely described as artificial intelligence, yet their epistemic profile diverges sharply from human cognition. Here we show that the apparent alignment between human and machine outputs conceals a deeper structural mismatch in how judgments are produced. Tracing the historical shift from symbolic AI and information filtering systems to large-scale generative transformers, we argue that LLMs are not epistemic agents but stochastic pattern-completion systems, formally describable as walks on high-dimensional graphs of linguistic transitions rather than as systems that form beliefs or models of the world. By systematically mapping human and artificial epistemic pipelines, we identify seven epistemic fault lines, divergences in grounding, parsing, experience, motivation, causal reasoning, metacognition, and value. We call the resulting condition Epistemia: a structural situation in which linguistic plausibility substitutes for epistemic evaluation, producing the feeling of knowing without the labor of judgment. We conclude by outlining consequences for evaluation, governance, and epistemic literacy in societies increasingly organizedaround generative.

Cc: ronald cicurel ernest davis amitā kapoor darius burschka william hsu moshe vardi luis lamb jelel ezzine amit sheth bernard W. kobes.


See


The Governance Case for Tesla Taking a Pre-IPO Stake in SpaceX

Elon Musk is considering Tesla taking a pre-IPO stake in SpaceX to integrate their businesses, accelerate ambitious projects, and increase the value of both companies ## ## Questions to inspire discussion.

Strategic Governance Alignment.

🔄 Q: Why should Tesla acquire a pre-IPO stake in SpaceX rather than waiting until after the IPO? A: A pre-IPO stake resolves governance and conflict risks before SpaceX’s planned $30B IPO in mid-2026, ensuring all transactions are recorded as part of the IPO and avoiding complications that could impact IPO pricing or create persistent post-IPO conflicts between the two companies.

🎯 Q: What is the core governance problem Tesla shareholders currently face with SpaceX? A: Tesla shareholders are exposed to SpaceX outcomes through dependencies on Starlink connectivity, orbital compute, and launch cadence without any ownership rights, governance rights, or downside protection as the companies converge operationally but not financially.

⚖ Q: How would a pre-IPO stake transaction affect Tesla’s ownership structure and Musk’s control? A: The transaction would dilute Tesla by 20% but could raise market cap to $1.62-2T, increasing Musk’s stake to 22.1–24% and his net worth approaching $1T, enabling him to achieve 25% control significantly earlier than under the compensation plan.

Capital Requirements and Infrastructure.

Rise of the machines: From AI to AGI to the uncharted realm of Superintelligence

AI’s rise to fame in the mainstream happened with OpenAI’s GPT-3 launch in 2020, which became a benchmark for large language models and quickly spread through startups via APIs. While Big Tech now races toward AGI and superintelligence, experts warn current systems remain limited, governance unprepared, and safety oversight crucial as AI capabilities accelerate faster than human control.

MAKER: Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable breakthroughs in reasoning, insight generation, and tool use

They can plan multi-step actions, generate creative solutions, and assist in complex decision-making. Yet these strengths fade when tasks stretch over long, dependent sequences. Even small per-step error rates compound quickly, turning an impressive short-term performance into complete long-term failure.

That fragility poses a fundamental obstacle for real-world systems. Most large-scale human and organizational processes – from manufacturing and logistics to finance, healthcare, and governance – depend on millions of actions executed precisely and in order. A single mistake can cascade through an entire pipeline. For AI to become a reliable participant in such processes, it must do more than reason well. It must maintain flawless execution over time, sustaining accuracy across millions of interdependent steps.

Apple’s recent study, The Illusion of Thinking, captured this challenge vividly. Researchers tested advanced reasoning models such as Claude 3.7 Thinking and DeepSeek-R1 on structured puzzles like Towers of Hanoi, where each additional disk doubles the number of required moves. The results revealed a sharp reliability cliff: models performed perfectly on simple problems but failed completely once the task crossed about eight disks, even when token budgets were sufficient. In short, more “thinking” led to less consistent reasoning.

Schellman AI Summit 2025 · Luma

Join Adam Perella and I at the Schellman AI Summit on November 18th, 2025 at Schellman HQ in Tampa Florida.

Your AI doesn’t just use data; it consumes it like a hungry teenager at a buffet.

This creates a problem when the same AI system operating across multiple regulatory jurisdictions is subject to conflicting legal requirements. Imagine your organization trains your AI in California, deploys it in Dublin, and serves users globally.

This means that you operate in multiple jurisdictions, each demanding different regulatory requirements from your organization.

Welcome to the fragmentation of cross-border AI governance, where over 1,000 state AI bills introduced in 2025 meet the EU’s comprehensive regulatory framework, creating headaches for businesses operating internationally.

As compliance and attestation leaders, we’re well-positioned to offer advice on how to face this challenge as you establish your AI governance roadmap.

Cross-border AI accountability isn’t going away; it’s only accelerating. The companies that thrive will be those that treat regulatory complexity as a competitive advantage, not a compliance burden.

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