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Category: economics

Post-Human Economics

With the rise of AGI, the need for Primal eye theory and the understanding of our form of sentience becomes greater than ever if we who are “Born of Nature” are to remain relevant.

Which is, of course, my doing. I’ve been working on a couple of big projects across the summer; time has been, to say the least, at a premium. The real point is: both projects have major implications for the future of this newsletter. I can’t wait to share more on all that in the coming weeks.

In the meantime, though, I’ve still been writing a whole lot. As most of you know, along with Raoul Pal I run The Exponentialist, a community focused on emerging technologies and their economic, social, and human implications.

In this special update, then, I’d like to share a recent essay from The Exponentialist. One that allows you a glimpse of the kind of work I do there. And that articulates an set of idea that are at the heart of my current thinking when it comes to our journey into the decades ahead.

El Niño and La Niña synchronize global droughts and floods, study finds

Water extremes such as droughts and floods have a huge impact on communities, ecosystems, and economies. Researchers with The University of Texas at Austin have turned their attention to tracking these extremes across Earth and have discovered what is driving them.

In a recent study published in AGU Advances, the researchers found that over the past two decades ENSO, a climate pattern in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that includes El Niño and La Niña, has been the dominant driver of total water storage extremes at the global level. What’s more, the researchers found that ENSO has a synchronizing effect on water storage extremes across continents.

Study co-author Bridget Scanlon, a research professor at the Bureau of Economic Geology at the UT Jackson School of Geosciences, said that understanding how extremes unfold across the world has humanitarian and policy impacts.

Global AI Adoption in 2025 — AI Economy Institute

Global adoption of artificial intelligence continued to rise in the second half of 2025, increasing by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, with roughly one in six people worldwide now using generative AI tools, remarkable progress for a technology that only recently entered mainstream use.

To track this trend, we measure AI diffusion as the share of people worldwide who have used a generative AI product during the reported period. This measure is derived from aggregated and anonymized Microsoft telemetry and then adjusted to reflect differences in OS and device-market share, internet penetration, and country population. Additional details on the methodology are available in our AI Diffusion technical paper. 1

No single metric is perfect, and this one is no exception. Through the Microsoft AI Economy Institute, we continue to refine how we measure AI diffusion globally, including how adoption varies across countries in ways that best advance priorities such as scientific discovery and productivity gains. For this report, we rely on the strongest cross-country measure available today, and we expect to complement it over time with additional indicators as they emerge and mature.

Gubernatorial Candidate Promises ROBOTS To Every Californian… Is Cenk Buying it?

Here’s my full 30-min interview from yesterday with Cenk Uygur on TYT! We cover a lot of things: superintelligence, Basic Income, my Automated Abundance Economy, and my California Governor run.

Cenk Uygur and Zoltan Istvan discuss the future of AI and California on The Young Turks. Do you agree with TYT’s take? Tell us what you think in the comments below. SUBSCRIBE today: ☞ https://go.tyt.com/ytsubscribe.

Get paid to use your phone less! Switch to Noble Mobile today: https://go.tyt.com/mobile.

CHAPTERS:
0:00 Zoltan Istvan on running as a Democrat.
0:45 Transhumanist party.
2:30 Zoltan on AI & technology.
9:50 No corporate or Israel lobby money.
10:20 Zoltan’s policy priorities.
11:40 Robots for every Californian?!
14:00 Universal basic income.
23:00 Taxing robots?!
25:50 Reaching across the aisle.
28:00 AI revolution.

🔥 Tired of corporate media? Get honest news and bold commentary with TYT.

Continue reading “Gubernatorial Candidate Promises ROBOTS To Every Californian… Is Cenk Buying it?” | >

All-In’s 2026 Predictions

Questions to inspire discussion.

💰 Q: What would California’s wealth tax cost super voting shareholders like Larry Page and Sergey Brin? A: The tax multiplies voting ownership percentage by market cap to value super voting shares, resulting in a punitive tax rate of up to 50% on net worth for founders with control premiums.

🏃 Q: How much wealth could leave California if the asset seizure tax passes? A: An estimated half a trillion dollars in net worth could exit the state, creating severe budget implications for California’s social programs and general budget.

📊 Q: What should entrepreneurs do to prepare for potential wealth taxes on unrealized gains? A: Maintain a liquid safety net to cover tax bills on unrealized gains, though this is impossible to plan for if stock values later decline and bankrupt the company.

2026 Business Opportunities.

🤖 Q: Which company will become the first with more robots than humans? A: Amazon is predicted to become the first company with more robots than humans driving its bottom line by 2026 as they deploy robots while keeping human hiring flat.

Continue reading “All-In’s 2026 Predictions” | >

AI, Autonomy, and Scale: Why Elon Musk’s Timeline Will Break Society

Questions to inspire discussion.

🎯 Q: How should retail investors approach AI and robotics opportunities? A: Focus on technology leaders like Palantir, Tesla, and Nvidia that demonstrate innovation through speed of introducing revolutionary, scalable products rather than attempting venture capital strategies requiring $1M bets across 100 companies.

💼 Q: What venture capital strategy do elite firms use for AI investments? A: Elite VCs like A16Z (founded by Marc Andreessen) invest $1M each in 100 companies, expecting 1–10 to become trillion-dollar successes that make all other bets profitable.

🛡️ Q: Which defense sector companies are disrupting established contractors? A: Companies like Anduril are disrupting the five prime contractors by introducing innovative technologies like drones, which have become dominant in recent conflicts due to lack of innovation in the sector.

⚖️ Q: What mindset should investors maintain when evaluating AI opportunities? A: Be a judicious skeptic, balancing optimism with skepticism to avoid getting carried away by hype and marketing, which is undervalued but crucial for informed investment decisions.

Tesla’s Competitive Advantages.

Continue reading “AI, Autonomy, and Scale: Why Elon Musk’s Timeline Will Break Society” | >

Why SpaceX Is Worth Trillions With Only $15B of Revenue

SpaceX’s valuation has the potential to reach $1.5 trillion due to its innovative technologies, including reusable rockets, Starship, and Starlink, which could revolutionize the space industry and unlock massive growth opportunities in areas such as satellite connectivity, data centers, and computing ## Questions to inspire discussion.

Starship Production & Economics.

🚀 Q: What is SpaceX’s Starship production target and cost reduction goal? A: SpaceX plans to manufacture 1,000 Starships per year by 2030 (with aspirational goals of 10,000 per year), reducing launch costs to $10/kg through fully reusable vehicles achieving 99% reliability and 30 flights per booster.

🎯 Q: When will Starship begin commercial payload launches? A: Starship is currently in testing phase with proven relighting, PEZ dispenser deployment, and large payload capacity, expected to achieve commercial readiness as reliability approaches 99% through iterative flight testing.

Starlink V3 Revenue Model.

💰 Q: What revenue will Starlink V3 generate for SpaceX? A: Starlink V3 constellation will generate $250B revenue with 50% profit margins, representing 90–95% of SpaceX’s revenue over the next 5 years according to Mach33 and ARK Invest modeling.

Continue reading “Why SpaceX Is Worth Trillions With Only B of Revenue” | >

Should Tesla Investors Be Worried? NVIDIA vs Tesla

Despite NVIDIA’s advancements in self-driving technology, Tesla’s current lead in autonomous driving, production, and cost advantages are likely to keep it ahead of competitors, including NVIDIA, in the short term Questions to inspire discussion.

Platform Architecture & Business Model 🔧 Q: What type of product is Nvidia’s AI Pameo platform? A: Nvidia’s AI Pameo is a hardware and software toolset for OEMs requiring millions in non-recurring engineering fees and 70% gross margins on chips per vehicle, not a complete consumer solution like Tesla’s FSD. 🏭 Q: What does OEM implementation of Nvidia’s platform require? A: OEMs must have in-house AI talent to integrate, customize, certify, and handle warranty and liability for their specific vehicle models, as Nvidia provides the stack but not per-model engineering. 💰 Q: How does Tesla’s chip economics compare to Nvidia’s approach?

Unitree New Robot Goes Superhuman on Camera (Snaps Into Attack State)

Questions to inspire discussion.

Commercial Availability & Pricing.

A: Unitree is reportedly eyeing a $7 billion IPO, reflecting growing investor confidence in humanoid robotics as a serious commercial category with clear trajectory toward public, industrial, and commercial space operations.

Technical Specifications & Capabilities.

🤸 Q: What physical capabilities does the Unitree H2 demonstrate and how is it engineered?

A: The H2 humanoid performs flying kicks, backflips, and sandbag strikes using 31 degrees of freedom (12 in shoulders, 6 per arm, 3 in torso, 7 per leg), showcasing agility for potential real-world applications.

Continue reading “Unitree New Robot Goes Superhuman on Camera (Snaps Into Attack State)” | >

Stanford AI Experts Predict What Will Happen in 2026

After years of fast expansion and billion-dollar bets, 2026 may mark the moment artificial intelligence confronts its actual utility. In their predictions for the next year, Stanford faculty across computer science, medicine, law, and economics converge on a striking theme: The era of AI evangelism is giving way to an era of AI evaluation. Whether it’s standardized benchmarks for legal reasoning, real-time dashboards tracking labor displacement, or clinical frameworks for vetting the flood of medical AI startups, the coming year demands rigor over hype. The question is no longer “Can AI do this?” but “How well, at what cost, and for whom?”

Learn more about what Stanford HAI faculty expect in the new year.

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