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Category: economics

TACC’s “Horizon” Supercomputer Sets The Pace For Academic Science

As we expected, the “Vista” supercomputer that the Texas Advanced Computing Center installed last year as a bridge between the current “Stampede-3” and “Frontera” production system and its future “Horizon” system coming next year was indeed a precursor of the architecture that TACC would choose for the Horizon machine.

What TACC does – and doesn’t do – matters because as the flagship datacenter for academic supercomputing at the National Science Foundation, the company sets the pace for those HPC organizations that need to embrace AI and that have not only large jobs that require an entire system to run (so-called capability-class machines) but also have a wide diversity of smaller jobs that need to be stacked up and pushed through the system (making it also a capacity-class system). As the prior six major supercomputers installed at TACC aptly demonstrate, you can have the best of both worlds, although you do have to make different architectural choices (based on technology and economics) to accomplish what is arguably a tougher set of goals.

Some details of the Horizon machine were revealed at the SC25 supercomputing conference last week, which we have been mulling over, but there are still a lot of things that we don’t know. The Horizon that will be fired up in the spring of 2026 is a bit different than we expected, with the big change being a downshift from an expected 400 petaflops of peak FP64 floating point performance down to 300 petaflops. TACC has not explained the difference, but it might have something to do with the increasing costs of GPU-accelerated systems. As far as we know, the budget for the Horizon system, which was set in July 2024 and which includes facilities rental from Sabey Data Centers as well as other operational costs, is still $457 million. (We are attempting to confirm this as we write, but in the wake of SC25 and ahead of the Thanksgiving vacation, it is hard to reach people.)

Where are all the trillion dollar biotechs?

Of the many trends people chase in biotech, the only one that proves sure and consistent is declining returns. Even after adjusting for inflation, the number of new drugs approved per $1 billion of R&D spending has halved approximately every nine years since 1950. Deloitte’s forecast R&D IRR for the top 20 pharmas fell below the industry’s cost of capital (~7–8%) between 2019 and 2022. In other words, while the industry remained profitable overall, the incremental economics of R&D investment were value-eroding rather than value-creating. So, while other industries have a reason to treat the current market downturn as transient, the business of developing medicine has a more fundamental problem to deal with — it is quite literally shrinking out of existence.

Opinion: A bursting bubble could indeed be painful in the short term

But what if we’re in a “rational bubble” that, unlike other big speculative manias in history, takes our economy to a fundamentally better place?

I’m borrowing the phrase “rational bubble” from conversations with a Nobel laureate in economics, my friend A. Michael Spence. Bubbles seem by definition irrational. They grow as investors — often hostage to exuberant, herd-like behavior — push valuations well beyond anything warranted by the fundamentals on the ground.

However, the A.I. excitement, as seen in the blowout Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, rightly reflects the potential transformation of the entire economy. It is economically rational to risk losing everything on several bets if just a few can deliver a thousandfold return, which some A.I. investments almost certainly will.

Elon Musk Just Changed Everything at Tesla — And No One’s Talking About It

Elon Musk just made a bold announcement that could completely redefine Tesla’s future — but almost no one noticed. At the 2025 Tesla Shareholder Meeting, Elon revealed a deeper vision that goes far beyond cars. From AI and humanoid robots to clean energy and automation, Tesla is positioning itself as the driving force behind humanity’s next great leap.

In this video, Chris Smedley and the Ideal Wealth Grower team break down the hidden message behind Elon’s words, why the singularity may already be unfolding, and how Tesla’s shift toward artificial intelligence could reshape the global economy — and your investment strategy. Stay tuned till the end to discover why this could be the most important turning point in Tesla’s history.

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Fighting poverty may require cultural wisdom, not just cash

Most poverty-fighting efforts focus on meeting basic material needs, such as food and shelter. But this overlooks the psychological and cultural factors that shape how people take action in their lives.

University of Michigan researchers found that psychosocial programs designed to support women’s agency in Niger, West Africa, were effective in promoting women’s economic empowerment when grounded in local values—such as social harmony, respectfulness and collective progress—but not a Western-style program grounded in individual ambition.

The new study highlights how culturally attuned approaches to empowerment can offer a powerful pathway for reducing . The research, published in the latest issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, introduces a “culturally wise” approach: psychosocial programs that honor diverse worldviews and community values.

Catalyst turns methane into bioactive compounds for the first time

Natural gas—one of the planet’s most abundant energy sources—is primarily composed of methane, ethane, and propane. While it is widely burned for energy, producing greenhouse gas emissions, scientists and industries have long sought ways to directly convert these hydrocarbons into valuable chemicals. However, their extreme stability and low reactivity have posed a formidable challenge, limiting their use as sustainable feedstocks for the chemical industry.

Now, a team led by Martín Fañanás at the Center for Research in Biological Chemistry and Molecular Materials (CiQUS) at the University of Santiago de Compostela has developed a groundbreaking method to transform methane and other components into versatile “building blocks” for synthesizing high-demand products, such as pharmaceuticals. Published in Science Advances, this advance represents a critical leap toward a more sustainable and circular chemical economy.

For the first time, the CiQUS team successfully synthesized a bioactive compound—dimestrol, a non-steroidal estrogen used in hormone therapy—directly from methane. This achievement demonstrates the potential of their methodology to create complex, high-value molecules from a simple, abundant, and low-cost raw material.

From Moore’s Law to Market Rivalry: The Economic Forces That Shape the Semiconductor Manufacturing Industry

Executive Summary Semiconductors are the foundational technology enabling virtually every aspect of contemporary economic activity, from artificial intelligence and cloud computing to medical devices and…

Homoploutia: Income and Wealth Inequality in the U.S.

The rich in the U.S. just keep getting richer. Over the five decades, incomes have risen materially faster at the very top than anywhere below, and similarly, wealth has accumulated much more quickly at the top than anywhere below. A report from the Stone Center On Socio-Economic Inequality (at CUNY) looks at the mutually-reinforcing relationship between these two dynamics…

Homoploutia describes the situation in which the same people (homo) are wealthy (ploutia) in the space of capital and labor income in some countries. It can be quantified by the share of capital income rich who are also labor income rich. In this paper, we combine several datasets covering different time periods to document the evolution of homoploutia in the United States from 1950 to 2020. We find that homoploutia was low after World War II, has increased by the early 1960s, and then decreased until the mid-1980s. Since 1985 it has been sharply increasing: In 1985, about 17% of adults in the top decile of capital income earners were also in the top decile of labor-income earners. In 2018 this indicator was about 30%. This makes the traditional division between capitalists and laborers less relevant today. It makes periods characterized by high interpersonal inequality, high capital-income ratio, and high capital share of income in the past fundamentally different from the current situation. High homoploutia has far-reaching implications for social mobility and equality of opportunity. We also study how homoploutia is related to total income inequality. We find that rising homoploutia accounts for about 20% of the increase in total income inequality in the United States since 1986…

Note that the report was written in the 2020 (and published in The Review of Income and Wealth in 2023). The dynamic has continued since; the polarizing impact has grown.

Iron core-shell catalyst boosts hydrogen economy of direct syngas to olefin conversion

Scientists have developed a new iron-based catalyst that improves the typically low hydrogen atom economy (HAE) in the direct synthesis of olefins—small hydrocarbon molecules. It converts the water produced as a by-product into hydrogen for olefin production, thereby boosting overall efficiency.

Olefins derived from petroleum are the building blocks for many plastics and fuels. Direct conversion of syngas—a mixture of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrogen (H2)—into olefins offers a promising alternative to reducing reliance on petroleum. It opens ways for using syngas derived from coal, biomass, or as a feedstock for olefin production.

In this study published in Science, researchers presented a sodium-modified FeCx@Fe3O4 core-shell produced via coprecipitation and thermal treatment. The catalyst achieved over 75% olefin selectivity and a 33% by weight hydrocarbon yield. It also had an HAE of ~66–86%, which is significantly higher than the ~43–47% seen in the traditional syngas-to-olefin (STO) conversion methods.

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