Lifeboat Foundation

Based on the Bloomberg TV program “The Next Space Race” and other reliable sources, I determine the realistic payload costs goals for the next generation of private space companies.

I review NASA’s Space Shuttle Program costs and compare these with SpaceX costs, and then extrapolate to Planetary Resources, Inc.‘s cost structure.

Three important conclusions are derived. And for those viewing this video at my blog postings, the link to the Excel Spreadsheet is here (.xlsx file).

WHITE SWAN GRAPHICS BY MR. ANDRES AGOSTINI. — QUESTION: IN CORPORATE SETTINGS, IS THERE AN OUTRIGHT COUNTERMEASSURING WHITE SWAN TO THE BLACK SWAN? READ at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/White-Swan

Continue reading “White Swan Graphics, Countermeassuring Every Unthinkable Black Swan, By Mr. Andres Agostini — Question: In Corporate Settings, Is There An Outright Countermeassuring White Swan To The Black Swan? Read at http://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/White-Swan” »

Yesterday’s program, The Next Space Race, on Bloomberg TV was an excellent introduction to the commercial aerospace companies, SpaceX, the Sierra Nevada Company (SNC), and Boeing. The following are important points, at the stated times, in the program:

0.33 mins: The cost of space travel has clipped our wings.
5:18 mins: How many people knew Google before they started?
7:40 mins: SpaceX costs, full compliment, 4x per year at $20 million per astronaut.
11:59 mins: Noisy rocket launch, notice also the length of the hot exhaust is several times the length of the rocket.
12:31 mins: One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.
12:37 mins: Noisy shuttle launch, notice also the length of the hot exhaust is several times the length of the rocket.
13:47 mins: OPF-3, at one time the largest building in the world at 129 million cubic feet.
16:04 mins: States are luring private companies to start up in their states.
16:32 mins: NASA should be spending its money on exploration and missions and not maintenance and operations.
17:12 mins: The fair market value of OPF-3 is about $13.5 million.
17:19 mins: Maintenance cost is $100,000 per month
17:47 mins: Why Florida?
18:55 mins: International Space Station (ISS) cost $60B and if including the Shuttle program, it cost $150B.
19:17 mins: The size of the commercial space launch business.
21:04 mins: Elon Musk has put $100 million of his own money into SpaceX.
21:23 mins: The goals of NASA and private space do not conflict.

Summary:
1. Cost of ISS is $60B, total cost including the Shuttle program is $150B.

2. SpaceX cost is $20M per astronaut (for 7 astronauts) or a launch cost of $140 million per launch at $560 million per year for 4 launches per year.

Continue reading “The Next Space Race” »

Divestment in Unburnable Assets Begins at Stanford University http://www.21stcentech.com/divestment-unburnable-assets-begi…niversity/

Will Artificial Intelligence Destroy Us? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ud8-sUovZMI&feature=youtu.be

Continue reading “White Swan Update by Andres Agostini at http://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan” »

An interesting activity that is relevant to Lifeboat concerns has been provided for us by the Foundational Questions Institute, styled FQXi. They recently ran an essay contest on the topic, “How should humanity steer the future?” This contest was announced to Lifeboat members. Fourteen of the 155 posted essays are written by Lifeboat members, and some are written by top scientists. The contest is closed to submissions, but we can still participate.

Members of the public are invited to read and rate essays on the FQXi website. Public ratings will not decide the winners, but they may guide official judges. Essay quality varies, and the best might make a real contribution, so FQXi could use help in finding which are best. Their diversity is also interesting, and might show us paths we could take, and perhaps paths to avoid.

Lifeboat members who submitted essays include James Blodgett, Frank Boehm, Angelika Domschke, James Dunn, Preston Estep, Bob Freeman, Giorgio Gaviraghi, Jacob Haqq-Misra, Orenda Urbano Hernández, Alexander Hoekstra, Ted Howard, Randal A. Koene, Alexander MacRae, Federico Pistono, Walter Putnam, and Tihamer Toth-Fejel.

Continue reading “Lifeboat Foundation essays” »

The White Swan Treatise at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

White Swan Graphic 2 by Mr. Andres Agostini at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/White-Swan

The White Swan Treatise at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

White Swan Graphic by Mr. Andres Agostini at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/White-Swan

White Swan Update by Andres Agostini at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

All The Wearables You Could Be Wearing Right Now http://www.fastcocreate.com/3030158/infographic-all-the-wear…-right-now

Why Algorithms Are The Next Star Designers http://www.fastcodesign.com/3029756/why-algorithms-are-the-next-star-designers

Continue reading “White Swan Update by Andres Agostini at http://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan” »