Dec 11, 2016
Proof that Moore’s Law has been replaced by a Virtual Moore’s Law that is Accelerating and Bringing the Singularity With It
Posted by Eric Klien in categories: computing, singularity, supercomputing
Introduction
Moore’s Law says that the number of transistors per square inch will double approximately every 18 months. This article will show how many technologies are providing us with a new Virtual Moore’s Law that proves computer performance will at least double every 18 months for the foreseeable future thanks to many new technological developments.
This Virtual Moore’s Law is propelling us towards the Singularity where the invention of artificial superintelligence will abruptly trigger runaway technological growth, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilization.
Going Vertical
In the first of my “proof” articles two years ago, I described how it has become harder to miniaturize transistors, causing computing to go vertical instead. 2 years ago, Samsung was mass producing 24-layer 3D NAND chips and had announced 32-layer chips. As I write this, Samsung is mass producing 48-layer 3D NAND chips with 64-layer chips rumored to appear within a month or so. Even more importantly, it is expected that by the end of 2017, the majority of NAND chips produced by all companies will be 3D. Currently Samsung and its competitors are working 24/7 to transform their 2D factories to 3D factories causing a dramatic change in how NAND flash chips are created.